AI for Global and Local Resilience: Predicting Solar Flares and Floods in Lagos

Modern life depends on uninterrupted systems — satellites powering GPS and internet connections, undersea cables linking continents, and local infrastructure that supports millions of people in cities like Lagos. Yet both natural and environmental phenomena pose persistent threats to these lifelines. From solar flares disrupting communication satellites to devastating floods submerging neighborhoods, the need for accurate prediction and timely response has never been greater.

This is where artificial intelligence (AI) is stepping in. By analyzing complex datasets, AI can detect patterns invisible to traditional methods, offering a path to protect both global communication networks and vulnerable urban communities.

The Challenge of Space Weather

Solar flares occur when magnetic energy built up in the sun’s atmosphere is suddenly released. They are often accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which send billions of tons of charged particles toward Earth. When these reach the planet’s magnetosphere, they can trigger geomagnetic storms.

The consequences can be severe. In 1989, a geomagnetic storm knocked out power to six million people in Canada. Airlines today reroute polar flights to avoid communication blackouts, and satellite operators continuously monitor the sun for early warning signs. In an age of 5G networks, satellite-driven fintech, and AI-powered logistics, a major solar storm could cause billions in damages.

Traditional forecasting methods rely on physics-based models and solar observation data. While useful, these models struggle with the sheer complexity and variability of solar phenomena. Data is often incomplete or arrives with delays, making accurate real-time prediction difficult.

Using AI to Predict Solar Flares

One researcher exploring this frontier is Emmanuel Adefila, a software engineer and AI specialist with an MSc in Artificial Intelligence from the University of Bradford, UK. In a project analyzing sunspot and solar flare datasets, he investigated how machine learning and data visualization could uncover correlations between solar activity and flare occurrence.

The data, drawn from sources such as NOAA’s X-ray flare catalog and sunspot observation archives, was messy — riddled with missing values, inconsistent labels, and complex time patterns. Adefila applied data cleaning, feature engineering, and predictive algorithms, highlighting how flare activity is strongly linked to sunspot complexity and distribution.

The outcome showed how AI can complement traditional physics models, providing data-driven insights into when and where solar flares are most likely to occur. Forecasting of this kind could buy operators valuable time to safeguard satellites, adjust communication systems, and protect power grids from damage.

Floods in Lagos: A Parallel Challenge

While solar storms threaten systems in orbit, cities like Lagos face equally unpredictable risks on the ground. In 2022, severe floods displaced thousands of residents, damaged homes, and disrupted economic activity across Nigeria. Lagos, with its dense population and coastal geography, is particularly vulnerable to rainfall surges and rising sea levels.

Here too, the challenge is data complexity. Rainfall patterns are shifting due to climate change, drainage systems are often inadequate, and localized flooding can overwhelm entire districts with little warning. Traditional forecasting methods, based only on historical averages, fail to capture this new variability.

AI offers an alternative. By processing real-time weather data, satellite imagery, and urban infrastructure information, AI models can predict high-risk flood zones and issue early alerts. Just as with solar flares, the key lies in identifying patterns in messy, incomplete data and turning them into actionable forecasts.

Safeguarding Critical Systems

Whether for space weather or floods, the potential benefits of AI forecasting extend across sectors:

• Telecommunication: Solar flares can disrupt satellite signals. AI predictions allow operators to reroute services and prevent outages.

• Aviation: Airlines can reroute flights during high-risk solar activity, avoiding dangerous blackouts.

• Energy Grids: Geomagnetic storms can overload transformers; floodwaters in Lagos often damage substations. AI forecasts give grid managers time to prepare.

• Urban Safety: Flood-prediction systems could trigger evacuation alerts in vulnerable Lagos neighborhoods, reducing casualties and property loss.

• Fintech and Digital Commerce: Both solar storms and floods can paralyze platforms that rely on uninterrupted communication. AI safeguards ensure continuity.

For Nigeria, the stakes are rising. The country’s digital economy depends on satellites, undersea cables, and resilient cities. Lagos, as Africa’s fintech capital, would particularly benefit from predictive systems that secure both its digital infrastructure and its physical environment.

Challenges and Opportunities

AI for resilience is still evolving. Key hurdles include:

1. Data quality – Both space and climate datasets are messy and incomplete.

2. Model transparency – Operators and governments need explainable predictions, not black-box results.

3. Integration with existing systems – AI must work alongside established forecasting tools and infrastructure planning.

4. Global and local collaboration – Solar activity affects everyone, while floods are hyperlocal. Partnerships are needed at both levels to make AI effective.

Despite these challenges, advances in deep learning, expanding satellite monitoring, and growing interest from policymakers show that AI-driven resilience is moving from concept to reality.

Looking Ahead

As Adefila’s work illustrates, AI can transform how societies prepare for both global shocks and local disasters. By turning raw, messy datasets into meaningful forecasts, AI has the potential to safeguard satellites orbiting Earth and communities in Lagos alike.

The implications go beyond avoiding disruption. They point to a future where predictive intelligence underpins resilience — where communication systems, power grids, and cities are shielded from threats that once seemed beyond human control.

Space weather and climate change may be forces of nature, but with AI, their impact on our interconnected world can be managed. In Lagos, as in orbit, resilience will depend on how well we harness data, technology, and foresight.

ridoola.blogspot.com.ng