The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may appear to have its strategy laid out ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with recent moves suggesting the party may settle for a Christian candidate to wrest power from President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Last week, the opposition party announced that it had zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to the South, a move widely viewed as an attempt by the party to correct what many perceived as an error in 2023, when it fielded a Northerner for the election despite widespread agitations for the return of power to the South.
Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, a Muslim from Adamawa State, won the party's bitterly contested primary but faced stiff opposition from fellow party members, particularly the G-5 group spearheaded by then-Rivers State Governor and incumbent Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike.
Wike, having lost out on the ticket, insisted that power must return to the south or the PDP get rid of its then-National Chairman from Benue State, Iyorchia Ayu, for a southerner to step into the saddle.
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While the PDP struggled to get its act together, Tinubu of the APC also faced harsh criticism for picking a Muslim northerner, Kashim Shettima, as his running mate. The Muslim-Muslim ticket watered down Tinubu's argument for a southern presidency, as the region's predominant Christian population felt alienated by his choice.
However, with regional and religious sentiments proving major threats against Tinubu and Atiku, the Labour Party flagbearer, Peter Obi, appeared to present a balanced case.
The Anambra State-born Catholic adherent chose a Kaduna-Muslim scholar, Datti Baba-Ahmed, as his running mate, making a strong case for a power shift to the south without upsetting Nigeria's deeply rooted religious politics.
Tinubu managed to eke out a victory with the lowest percentage of votes for a Nigerian president since 1999. Although many observers attributed this outcome to a split in the opposition, the voting pattern revealed the significant role of religion in voters' decisions.
What is PDP's plan for 2027?
The PDP's recent zoning announcement is not just a gesture of good faith in honoring the unwritten principle of power rotation. It also has the potential to neutralize some of the ruling party's arguments in favour of Tinubu's re-election in 2027, thereby reshaping the political landscape.
However, the opposition party has taken it a step further by stating its readiness to field not just a Southerner but a Christian as its presidential candidate in 2027.
Speaking on Channels Television's Politics Today programme, Bauchi State Governor and Chairman of the PDP Governors' Forum, Bala Mohammed, confirmed that the party's strategic direction is to seek a Christian southerner as its next presidential candidate, a choice that could significantly influence the 2027 election.
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Mohammed acknowledged the party's past missteps, stating that the PDP is determined not to repeat the APC's error in 2023 when the party's ticket was given to a southern minority - a reference to Tinubu being a Muslim - leading to the selection of a fellow Muslim from the north as running mate.
Speaking on the party's strategy ahead of 2027, the Bauchi Governor said, "We have not absolutely chosen or narrowed down on any person; everybody should know that PDP is open.
"It's open in a manner that it's for the southerners to present somebody, and I said with all humility, we don't want to make the mistake of the APC.
"We need a Christian from the South to emerge as a presidential candidate so that he would lead a majority of Christian southerners to pick a majority Muslim from the North, not to put ourselves in a cul-de-sac in the way and manner the APC did in 2023 when they picked a minority from the South and had to take minority person from the North, which brought the issue of Muslim-Muslim ticket, which didn't take into cognizance the our [Ngeria's] diversity."
Has PDP found a winning strategy?
Although Mohammed's statement may sound controversial and parochial, the idea might be the best chance for the PDP to reclaim the presidency after its 2015 collapse.
Historically, Nigerian elections are dominated by tribal sentiments and regional alliances. In recent years, however, religion has played a central role in determining who leads Africa's most populous country.
This became more pronounced in 2023 when Tinubu opted to run alongside Shettima. Recognising his disadvantaged position as a Muslim southerner, the then-APC candidate ignored the backlashes and stuck to his strategy of having a Muslim northerner on his ticket.
This proved to be a masterstroke in the end, as the former Lagos State Governor recorded a strong performance in the Northern region, securing a victory.
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